Whilst the title of this blog might sound like an interesting night out, it is actually an attempt to think through some of the major cultural changes we are currently living through.
We live in a time of rapid cultural transition. This is brought about in part by the possibilities of new technologies, but is also driven by changes in behaviour that are chosen for a variety of different reasons.
Industries are being forced to adapt to this new and quickly evolving reality. This has led to some major changes.
For much of the history of the UK the local pub has been an important place for social meeting. People went to their local, had a pint or two of beer and spent a pleasant hour with their neighbours.
‘Since 2000, a quarter of pubs have closed in the UK, totalling more than 13,000 locations. Four out of five people have seen a pub close down within five miles of their home.’[1]
The recent COVID-19 pandemic looks likely to accelerate this process. There may be around 25% of pubs who will not survive.
This would have been very bad news for brewers, who traditionally sold most of their product through the pubs. However, the brewers have changed their business model. So much so that in 2015 beer sales in supermarkets overtook pub sales for the first time[2].
They have responded to the new social reality – people prefer to drink at home – and adapted their business model to work in this new situation.
The film business has also been in a period of rapid change. It used to be the case that cinemas were the only place you could watch films. But, first VHS and then DVD technologies, enabled people to buy films to watch at home, then the internet enabled the creation of streaming services that allowed you to download a film direct to your tv.
The film industry has had to adapt.
Cinemas have adapted –
- they have either become more broad in their offering – more screens, more variety – quality and comfort of seats, food options, loyalty schemes, 3D showings, event packages etc.
- or they have become more niche – tailoring their offering to a specific customer group.
The film business has also embraced the new options of digital delivery of content.
‘This year, OTT[3] revenues will overtake theatrical revenues for the first time, according to Ampere Analysis. SVoD[4] has already surpassed cinema in the US, and the trend is widening to include European and Chinese markets. All in, OTT is predicted to reach US$46 billion in 2019, beating worldwide box office receipts of US$40 billion[5].
So the beer industry and the film industry have adapted to the changing realities of modern life and their businesses have survived.
If we turn now to the church we see a similar effect at play. Between 1980 and 2015 church attendance halved in the Church of England in the UK[6]. I attended a Christian Vision for Men event a few years ago, where it was stated that if the current rates continue, the last man will leave the Church of England in 2030.
So, if we find, as brewers and film producers have, that our offering is no longer something that people find attractive, what should we do?
One answer might be ‘Nothing’. Maybe we just hold out, dig in, maintain our existing practices. Maybe the world just needs to come around to our way of doing things?
We could circle the wagons and create an exclusive club for the cognoscenti.
Whilst this might have the quality of ‘faithfulness to Tradition’, (or at least our most recent ‘tradition’), it does not sit easily with the history of the Christian movement from its earliest days.
The Christian faith has always considered itself as being for the masses. The foundation charter of the Church is the command given by Jesus to his discipes;
Then Jesus came to them and said, “All authority in heaven and on earth has been given to me. Therefore go and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, and teaching them to obey everything I have commanded you. And surely I am with you always, to the very end of the age.”[7]
In other words the Church is fundamentally about world-wide expansion; about creating communities of faith centred upon Jesus and living in the experience of his presence.
The early Church quickly learned to adapt itself as it expanded into different contexts. We see the first example of this in the way that it quickly adapted itself from a Jewish movement to one that was more open to Gentiles.
We see this adaptability at play in the ministry of St Paul. He wrote about becoming ‘all things to all men, that I might save some’[8]. We see this played out concretely in the way that he quoted Greek poetry when speaking to the Athenians[9], in how he used a lecture hall in order to share his ideas with the philosophers[10]. Yet he also made his Gentile assistant get circumcised, so that no offence might be given to Jewish Christians.
The content of Paul’s message never changed, but the manner of its presentation and the way in which he led people into an exploration of it, was always contextually shaped.
Those who study how we can take the Christian message to different cultures (missiologists) are ahead of the game in this. Contextualisation – the process of expressing the unchanging message of Christ in a particular context – is vital if the Christian message is to really live within that culture. Often this process enables those taking the gospel to see it with new eyes, appreciate aspects that were underdeveloped within their own culture[11].
So, as our culture is changing and we see industries and businesses adapting in order to maintain themselves, in what ways might the church change?
More Variety –
Our culture is less monolithic than it once was. Relationship and family patterns have changed. Working patterns have changed. Leisure patterns have changed. The idea of holding one particular event, once a week, in one place for the whole local community to come to, is unlikely to survive.
People will need to have options, both in terms of the day and the time but also in terms of content and form. It is rather hopeful to think that one event can help –
– all ages – seniors, the middle-aged, young adults, teenagers, small children,
– all personality types,
– all stages in spiritual development, etc. etc.
to help them explore and/or express faith.
I think that the future is more likely to be multiple – multiple activities at multiple times in multiple locations.
More Innovation –
In order to develop these new ways of exploring faith and being Church we will need more innovators, explorers, pioneers. More people with the capacity and skill to see possibilities and explore them.
In technical Christian language these people are apostles – they take the gospel in to new contexts and see it established there.
More Failure –
The one certainty about innovation is that it involves risky experiments that often don’t work. Also I think the future is inherently unstable – things will be successful for a while, but not necessarily endure long-term.
This will require a process for continual evaluation and of implementing a good death for things that have served their purpose but then looking to see how resurrection might come in a new form.
More Prayer –
It is a truism to say that mostly we pray only when we have to. When our circumstances are stable, when life is plodding on predictably and comfortably, we have little felt sense of the need of prayer.
When we are in the maelstrom of constant change and things around us and being birthed, flourishing, dying and resurrected, I think we will feel a much greater need for prayer. The fact of mission being God’s work (missio dei) will become more obvious and our reliance on God’s activity more urgent.
Less Professional –
Whilst the complexity of church looks likely to increase, with this new landscape of rapid change and multiple forms, I think that this will not lead to more highly trained, full-time, tertiary educated, professional ministers but it will actually be more about unpaid, part-time activists.
I think the church will be more artisanal than professional. It will be more about having a passion, an idea, a vision and chasing it, than about people being formed within an institution in order to maintain that institution.
There may certainly be a mix but I think that the kind of smaller groupings we can envisage as the new ways in which Church will express itself will be capable of being led by people with less training but with on-going oversight and support, and achievable as a spare time, or part-time engagement.
More Fun –
I think that the Church will be more interesting, more varied, more playful in this new future. In a word more fun.
I wonder what your ideas are? What have I missed? Where am I wrong? It would be good to hear your ideas.
[1] https://www.companydebt.com/articles/pub-closures-in-the-uk/
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/26/supermarket-beer-sales-overtook-pub-sales-first-time-last-year
[3] OTT = Over the Top – streamed film content over the internet (the content provider is going ‘over the top’ of existing internet services).
[4] SVOD is a video sales strategy based on recurring revenue, usually monthly or annual subscriptions and stands for Subscription Video on Demand.
[5] https://www.ibc.org/trends/streaming-vs-cinema-what-does-the-future-hold-for-film/3517.article
[6] https://faithsurvey.co.uk/uk-christianity.html
[7] Matthew 28:28-30, NIV
[8] 1 Corinthians 9:22
[9] Acts 17:28
[10] Acts 19:9
[11] The classic example of this is Vincent DONOVAN’s book ‘Christianity Rediscovered – An epistle form the Masai.